England’s estimated R number has fallen to between 0.8 and 1.1, suggesting the pandemic could be shrinking.
Last week, it was between 1.1 and 1.4.
An R value – or reproduction number – between 0.8 and 1.1 means on average every 10 people infected with COVID-19 will infect between eight and 11 others.
The daily growth rate of infections in England is estimated at between -3% and 1%, according to the figures from the United Kingdom Health Security Agency.
It is down on the previous week when cases were believed to be growing by between 2% and 5%.
The estimates represent the situation two to three weeks ago, due to the delay between someone being infected, developing symptoms, and needing healthcare.
The North West region and the North East and Yorkshire have the lowest estimated range of 0.7-1.0.
The South East, London and East of England have a slightly higher estimate than the England average, at 0.9-1.2.
It comes as coronavirus infection rates have fallen in all home nations apart from Northern Ireland, according to other official estimates.
Data from the Office for National Statistics show that in the week ending 31 July, approximately one in 75 people in private households in England (722,300 positive cases) were estimated to have had COVID-19.
This compares with one in 65 people (865,200) the previous week.
In Scotland, the latest figure was one in 120 (43,000 infections), compared with one in 110 (49,500) the week before.
In Wales, one in 230 people (13,000 cases) were estimated to have had coronavirus in the last week of July, while it was one in 160 (18,800) in the previous seven days.
In contrast, in Northern Ireland, infection rates have risen, with one in 55 people (34,400) thought to have had COVID, compared with one in 65 (27,200) a week earlier.
The ONS Infection Survey tests tens of thousands of people in private households around the country to produce its estimates.